NFC/AFC Championship Games
Well, here we are, almost. The Super Bowl is only two weeks away, but we still have (arguably) the two best games of the NFL season to go – the NFC and AFC Championship Games (and the Pro Bowl, but the less said about that, the better). This year, more so than any other, it feels like the best four teams this season are in the Conference Championship Games. In the NFC, we'll see the San Francisco 49ers travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs.
Last week provided plenty of action as the Divisional Round gave us some tightly contested matchups (and one blowout). In the NFC, the Eagles cruised by the Giants 38-7. This game was a snooze-fest by the second half, as the Eagles jumped out 14-0 in the first quarter and took a four-touchdown lead into half. The Giants could only muster one touchdown in the second half – a direct snap to Saquon Barkley that resulted in a Matt Breida touchdown (remember him?). The Giants didn't look like the team that took it to the Vikings the week before, and this allowed the Eagles to rest a bunch of players in the second half. A much closer game was the Cowboys and the 49ers. Neither offense did much, and Dak Prescott of the Cowboys looked downright dreadful. Had the Cowboys offense played to their midseason form, they easily could have taken this one. As it is, rookie quarterback Brock Purdy led the 49ers to a 19-12 victory and their 12th win in a row and another trip to the Conference Championship game for Head Coach Kyle Shanahan.
Over in the AFC, we saw the Jaguars hang tight with the Chiefs for much of the game. While KC came away with the 27-20 win, Patrick Mahomes got rolled up on his ankle by a defensive player, which resulted in veteran Chad Henne playing for much of the first half. Mahomes had his ankle taped and played the entire second half, which bodes well for his play this coming weekend. Kudos to Doug Peterson and the Jacksonville Jaguars for keeping it close with the Chiefs, Mahomes injury or not. The biggest surprise of the weekend had to be the 27-10 Bengals' upset of the Bills. Buffalo was the number 2 seed in the AFC and was a 5.5-point favorite entering last Sunday. Josh Allen and the Bills' offense could get nothing going, and the resurgent Bengals' defense held the Bills to just a field goal in the second half. Joe Burrow, meanwhile, was masterful, going 23 for 36 for 242 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. This Bengals team is strong from snap to catch, with playmakers all over the formation.
This looks to be another couple of great matchups on Sunday. The Chiefs are making their NFL record fifth AFC Championship Game appearance in a row, and a rematch with the Bengals, who beat the Chiefs to advance to the Super Bowl last year, is on tap. In the NFC, we have MVP candidate Jalen Hurts leading an Eagles team against potential Rookie of the Year in Brock Purdy and the 49ers. Time to break down the schedule and both Conference Championship Games. *Note – the odds listed here are courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook; this may not be reflective of the best line or odds available. Check the SB Intel individual Game Pages for the latest moneylines, spreads, totals and alt lines, while also following the line movement. You can quickly find the best lines for each of the games using the NFL Game Boards.
- NFC Conference Championship: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, +130) at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, -150), over/under 46, 2:00 pm CST, Sunday, January 29th
- AFC Conference Championship: Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5, +100) at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, -120), over/under 48, 5:30 pm CST, Sunday, January 29th
The emergence of Brock Purdy from Mr. Irrelevant (the last pick in the NFL Draft) to Rookie of the Year candidate might be the best story from this NFL season. Purdy took over as the starting quarterback for the 49ers after both second year QB Trey Lance and veteran Jimmy Garappolo went down to injury earlier in the season. Purdy has been an absolute force since taking the reins, and the 49ers bring a 12-game win streak into Philadelphia to face the number 1 seed in the NFC. Jalen Hurts, meanwhile, has been a story all his own, as the third-year player out of Alabama/Oklahoma has put the doubts to rest en route to an MVP-caliber season. Now just one win away from a Super Bowl appearance, the Eagles are putting their NFC-best 14-3 regular season record on the line.
On paper, these two teams seem to match up very well. This is supported by the line on the game, which has Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite. The sportsbooks tend to give home teams a three-point advantage, signaling this game would likely be a pick ‘em on a neutral field. Both teams have excellent run games, led by Miles Sanders for the Eagles and one-two punch Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell for the 49ers. Both teams have quarterbacks that can push the ball downfield and offensive weapons near the top of the league in the respective pass catchers (the combination of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert is eerily similar to the trio of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle). Both teams have strong defenses. Both teams have excellent Head Coaches and signal callers on both sides of the ball.
The big difference between these two teams is the dual-threat ability of the quarterback, which the Eagles have in Jalen Hurts and the 49ers are lacking. While Purdy is no slouch, he's not nearly the dynamic weapon that Hurts is on the ground. The passing game of the Eagles was ranked 9th best in the league this year, and the threat of Hurts on the ground keeps defenses honest. It's almost a guarantee that if the Eagles get the ball inside the five that Hurts is going to punch it into the end zone.
Bottom line – Hurts has been in the league for three years and has come into his own, while Head Coach Nick Sirianni has surrounded him with offensive weapons and put together a championship-level defense. Brock Purdy is making only his eighth ever start and hasn't been asked to do much so far. While he is capable of making some big plays, the Eagles' offense can very easily jump out to an early lead, which could lead to Purdy making too many mistakes on this big stage. We see this as a close game, but ultimately a win for the home team. Give us Philly minus the two and a half.
Someone asked us the other day who the three best quarterbacks in the NFL currently are. We said Mahomes and Josh Allen. They said Mahomes and Burrow. A third person said Burrow and Allen. You can see where this is going. Two of the three best quarterbacks are facing off against each other in what is sure to be another epic AFC Championship Game. It's Joe Burrow and the Bengals versus Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for the second straight time in the postseason, both times to determine who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Burrow has been the Kansas City Killer early in his young career, having beaten the Chiefs the only three times he's played them. Just last month Burrow led the Bengals to a tight 27-24 win in Cincinnati. In three career games against KC, Burrow has averaged 327 yards passing per game, a 72 percent completion rate and an eight to one touchdown to interception ratio. Mahomes has been no slouch in these games. In last year's AFC Championship Game he went 26 for 39 for 275 yards and three touchdowns. These are two players who are just starting their respective careers, and we look forward to many more battles down the road. Is this the new Brady versus Manning?
The big storyline for this game is the status of Mahomes' ankle. What looked like a bad injury last week ended up being diagnosed a high ankle sprain. Still, while a high ankle sprain is usually a multi-week absence, Mahomes played the entire second half last week and carries no injury designation into this game. But high ankle sprains can be nasty, and this could be Mahomes pushing to play, despite the injury. We'll look to see if the Bengals are going to bring pressure early to force Mahomes out of the pocket and test the ankle.
The Bengals, meanwhile, continue to deal with their own injury woes. They continue to lose offensive lineman at an alarming rate, though that didn't seem to slow down the offense last week. Still, being down three key starters for this matchup may prove to be dicey, allowing the Chiefs' front seven more chances to get to Burrow early, perhaps leading to some rushed and errant throws. Defensive tackle Chris Jones of the Chiefs had 15 1/2 sacks this season and gets to the QB like no one's business. Burrow can certainly scramble, but the combination of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd means he would rather stand in the pocket and make the right throws.
This one is difficult to predict, as these teams match up very well. You must think Chiefs' Head Coach Andy Reid knows exactly the status of Mahomes' ankle and is game planning around it. If he is truly 100 percent healthy, there is no one in the NFL that has Mahomes' combination of athleticism, arm talent, intelligence and pocket presence. We are hard-pressed to see the Chiefs lose a fourth straight to the Bengals. Look for Mahomes and co. to get back to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.
Conference Championship Sunday may be our favorite slate of games throughout the entire NFL season. We think there will be plenty of great NFL action, and both these games should be close. We will keep you updated throughout the weekend with NFL news (especially if anything comes out about Mahomes' ankle), line changes, scores and more. Our Twitter, Instagram and Facebook pages will have the latest on the NFL and updates on the NBA, NHL and NCAA basketball. We will have several +EV plays and arbitrage opportunities sprinkled in, as well as highlighting any good sportsbooks' promotions this weekend.
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