Sports betting odds line movements in action
In my previous blog post Sports Betting Odds Line Movements I discussed what line movement is in sports betting, what causes it and how it impacts us as a sports bettor. If you have not read feel free to jump back and read before diving in here. Now that we have a basic understanding of line movement let's jump into an example.
Where better to look than the 2023 College Football National Championship! There has been a lot of chatter about how spectators and fans were unhappy with the game. Most seem to have been hoping forward to a more competitive college football contest. For Aces High we could not have had a better game with Georgia coming out in dominating fashion and covering every single offensive over bet there was to find.
Such a lopsided game one might have expected more line movement throughout the week. Overall line moves were fairly tame, but not completely flat. I believe this will make for a very easy to understand example. The first chart we have shows the moneyline odds moved starting January 2nd going all the way through to Gameday which was January 10th.
Sportsbook Line Movement Comparison - 2022-23 NCAAFB Championship
*sportsbettingintel.com had odds available before the championship teams were announced, but they have been omitted here for easier understanding. Also most lines were released immediately after the conclusion of the Ohio State/Georgia game. Most books set their opening line much shorter for Georgia but it was bet down very quickly. We have omitted the brief spike also.
What is this mess of lines we are looking at here? Each color represents a specific sportsbook. We can follow and compare throughout the week leading up to the game. As mentioned in the previous blog post there are a number of reasons these moves could have come about. For the sake of this article we will focus on the action rather than the why of it.
Comparing book odds is always one of the best tools we as sports bettors have, but limiting to one sports book will be easier to understand and follow along with. After a random roll of the die…FanDuel it is. The next chart is a little easier to understand. We can see that our first line (on the chart) appears to be around -550. This was not the opening line (check notes above) but was the first steady data we had. Less than a couple hours after lines had settled to the -550 we can see that FanDuel dropped the Georgia price to -580. These are the shortest odds we will see offered for Georgia on our graph. Over the course of the next day, bulldog bettors are treated to some improving odds.
FanDuel Line Movement for Georgia Bulldogs - 2022-23 NCAAFB Championship
Our first run into the close comes on Friday, Jan. 6th. Starting at this point we can clearly see the Georgia odds get shorter and shorter all the way until the kickoff. Our closing line "coincidentally" lines up with the balanced opening line of -550. Anyone who regularly follows odds movements will hopefully see the humor with the quotes there. Now that we have digested the whole weeks worth of line movements, let's check out what the odds were actually saying at each point in time.
FanDuel Implied Probability Changes for Georgia Bulldogs - 2022-23 NCAAFB Championship
Similar? If you caught on, or perhaps already knew the logic, this graph will be the mere inverse of our previous one. We can flip one of them upside down and they will line up exact. Why show this then? On the X-axis you can now easily see the change in win probability that the line was implying. At our peak here we have Georgia implied chances of winning @ just over 85%. If we look down to the lowest point, they are at just over an 81% chance of winning. This 4% difference is huge. For a lot of profitable sports bettors 4% is everything. If anyone was curious, the juice is a non-factor in the case of these data points. Probabilities not getting you excited? Let's jump into something that will resonate with most readers.
FanDuel Profit on $500 Bet Movement for Georgia Bulldogs - 2022-23 NCAAFB Championship
Our winnings! This chart will seem very familiar again. It's shape will be the exact same as our odds movement chart. Are you noticing the pattern yet? Odds, probabilities, winnings…they are all the same things just presented in different forms. Here everything is based off a nickel ($500) bet on Georgia to win. Betting $50? Just divide by 10, move the decimal one to the left. Betting a dime ($1,000) simply double the winnings. On our shown bet size we can see betting Georgia at the best line would have made us $116 in profit. Betting at the shortest odds (shown on the graph) we would have only come away with $86. That is a whopping 34% more we would have raked in by taking Georgia at the apex of the move. For anyone interested in a more detailed breakdown of the statistics across all books in this study see below.
Georgia was a heavy favorite coming into this game. They came to prove it was for good reason. Even with a game like this having little news and only the dreamers…and horned frog fans I suppose…thinking TCU had a shot, we still realized line movement. Hopefully we have shed some light on the importance of understanding sports betting line movements.
News and disagreement in the market place are a fairly regular occurrence in the sports betting world. If you would like to look into these line movements more, SportsBettingIntel.com provides the most comprehensive odds analysis across all bets we track. Looking for the line movement on Draftkings for an alternate point spread - Chiefs -4.5 in the upcoming Superbowl? We have it for you along with any other moneyline, spread, total, or alternate across every book for every event in all the major sports. Check it out in our Game Breakdown. For those of you looking for more advanced line movement tools such as our proprietary odds movement forecasting system, please reach out to info@sportsbettingintel.com and inquire about our sharps package.
Statistical Breakdown of 2022-23 College Football National Championship Odds Movement Across Major Sportsbooks
| PointsBet | Barstool | BetMGM | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| count | 360 | 356 | 352 | 345 | 344 | 332 |
| mean | -524.17 | -518.90 | -479.97 | -511.80 | -453.59 | -488.64 |
| std | 23.03 | 29.99 | 30.95 | 42.78 | 22.74 | 38.83 |
| min | -570 | -590 | -550 | -580 | -500 | -550 |
| 25% | -545 | -530 | -500 | -550 | -450 | -550 |
| 50% | -520 | -530 | -500 | -550 | -450 | -480 |
| 75% | -510 | -500 | -450 | -480 | -435 | -450 |
| max | -495 | -480 | -450 | -430 | -435 | -450 |
*sportsbettingintel.com had odds available before the championship teams were announced, but they have been omitted here for easier understanding. Also most lines were released immediately after the conclusion of the Ohio State/Georgia game. Most books set their opening line much shorter for Georgia but it was bet down very quickly. We have omitted the brief spike also.
Use SportsBettingIntel.com and their tool suite to help with Line Movemments.
- Check out SportsBettingIntel.com for the SBI fair line.
- Join the SBI discord chat to confer with like minded bettors rather than waiting for your friends to wake up.
- If the line does move check out what other books have the current betting line at using SBI Game Boards for a quick look at the current betting odds.
- Follow SBI on social media to be informed about current betting news.
- Inquire about SBI Sharps Package to see how we can help you predict line moves.
- WAGER WISELY
