NFL Divisional Round
Wild Card Weekend was certainly wild last week! The AFC Wild Card gave us three great games, and the NFC Wild Card was right there. Jacksonville managed the impossible – coming back from down 27-0 to win a playoff game. We said last week: “Considering the travel, the lack of wide receiver talent outside of Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer and how well Jacksonville has been playing recently, don’t be surprised to see an upset in the second game of the weekend.” And while it took them all of 60 minutes to get there, Jacksonville did upset the LA Chargers in the first round.
Elsewhere, the Dolphins gave the Bills a scare in the third quarter when they took the lead. Buffalo had jumped out to an early 17-point lead but looked to get complacent. Rookie Skylar Thompson got Miami back into it, but the Dolphins’ lack of playoff experience got them in the end. Josh Allen (three turnovers) and the Bills will need to play much better to get past Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who had their own scare courtesy of Baltimore. Were it not for an improbable fumble return for a touchdown by Cincinnati on a goal line attempt from the Ravens’ Tyler Huntley, we might be seeing Baltimore this weekend.
In the NFC, Daniel Jones had an outstanding game, and the Giants did enough to get past the Vikings, keeping the latter at arm’s length for most of the game. Seattle took a lead into halftime in their game against San Francisco, but Kyle Shanahan’s defense shut the Seahawks down in the second half, and the 49ers offense made explosive play after explosive play. Tom Brady lost for his first time ever against Dallas (an incredible stat considering the length of his career), and the Buccaneers were sent packing with an early (and unceremonious) exit from the NFL playoffs. The postseason just isn’t the same without the GOAT.
Onto the Divisional Round. This looks to be a great slate of games and an incredible weekend of football. We have a divisional rematch, some veteran teams and one relative newcomer to the second round of the playoffs. Let’s breakdown the schedule and each of the games. *Note – the odds listed here are courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook; this may not be reflective of the best line or odds available. Check the SB Intel individual Game Pages for the latest moneylines, spreads, totals and alt lines, while also following the line movement. You can quickly find the best lines for each of the games using the NFL Game Boards.
- AFC: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5), 3:30 pm CT, Saturday, January 21st
- NFC: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5), 7:15 pm CT, Saturday, January 21st
- AFC: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5), 2:00 pm CT, Sunday, January 22nd
- NFC: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), 5:30 pm CT, Sunday, January 22nd
The Kansas City Chiefs carry the largest spread into this weekend, with the line currently sitting at -8.5. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have made an incredible combination in Mahomes’ first few years in the league, having been to two Super Bowls already (with one win). Despite the loss of field-stretcher and fastest-man-in-the-league Tyreek Hill, this offense has hardly skipped a beat, putting up a league-leading 29.2 points per game this year. The defense is not quite as dominant, but the Chiefs’ offensive prowess often puts their opponents in a position where they need to catch up, and Kansas City’s defense has the talent to take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes when this happens.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, are riding high after an incredible and emotional come-from-behind win against the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence was miserable in the first half of that game, tossing four interceptions on the way to a 27-0 deficit. But he showed everyone why he was the first overall pick in the draft in the second half, throwing for four touchdowns and leading the Jaguars to the Divisional Round. The Jaguars aren’t going to be able to get away with such heroics against the Chiefs, however. They’ll need to play a near-perfect game and the defense will have to force Mahomes into some errant throws (with a turnover or two) to pull of the upset. While Jacksonville’s last three games were all incredible finishes that they managed to pull off, we have a feeling the Cinderella story comes to an end on Saturday.
Another feel-good story this year has been the New York Giants. First-year Head Coach Brian Daboll has managed to turn around this rag tag team in record time, and with very little to work with on offense outside of Daniel Jones. Speaking of Jones, he has been playing at another level this year, and last week had a game for the ages in their win against Minnesota. And he’s been doing this with a rotating cast of (underrated?) pass catchers! Running back Saquon Barkley is having a career resurgence, and we fully expect the Giants to lean on him heavily in this game.
A lot of the Eagles’ side comes down to the health of starting quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts missed a couple of weeks near the end of the season with a shoulder injury, and some say was rushed back for week 18 in a critical matchup that secured Philadelphia the one seed and a first-round bye. If Hurts is healthy, he is one of the most dynamic playmakers at the position, with incredible rushing talent to go along with a much-improved passing game. Devonta Smith, superstar A.J. Brown and a now-healthy Dallas Goedert make for a trio of pass catchers nearly unmatched in the league, and Miles Sanders is back to playing like his rookie self. It’s tough to see how the Giants beat a healthy Jalen Hurts and well-rested Eagles squad, but don’t be shocked if this game comes down to a touchdown or less.
We will be getting a spiritual conclusion to the week 17 game between these two teams that was cancelled due to the health concerns of Damar Hamlin (who is doing well with his recovery, from what we hear). Both teams had a scare last week as lesser opponents in the Ravens and the Dolphins kept the games close throughout. The Bills haven’t looked quite as invincible as last year, and this last game against Miami and rookie Skylar Thompson goes to show that. Still, Josh Allen is Josh Allen, and the Bills offense can keep up with anyone in the league. The Bengals middle-of-the-road defense will have their hands full.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, thwarted their own division foe in Baltimore last week, though not for lack of trying on the Ravens’ part. The Bengals’ offense is just as explosive as the Bills’, with Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase the best one-two punch in the league. Quarterback Joe Burrow is one of the best pure passers in the league, so this game projects to be a shootout. That said, the total is only 48.5, which speaks to what Vegas thinks. Both teams could look to take away the deep shots, leading to lots of quick passes underneath and a running clock. We wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go under the total.
The final game of the weekend is one a lot of people are looking forward to. The Dallas Cowboys may have finally gotten the playoff bugaboo off their backs, having defeated the Buccaneers and securing their first road playoff win since 1992. Quarterback Dak Prescott has at times been both great and below par this season, as his last game’s performance and his season-leading 15 interceptions this season, respectively, can attest. But when Dak is on, he’s on, and the offense truly hums. The Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been hot and cold, however, as they’ve been consistently one of the toughest in the league all season.
On the opposite side of the field the 49ers have had to turn to third-string quarterback and Mr. Irrelevant himself, Brock Purdy, to helm the offense after injuries to both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garappolo. Purdy has been spectacular since taking over as signal-caller, showing few mistakes that tend to plague rookies. With the YAC-man himself Deebo Samuel, a rejuvenated Brandon Aiyuk and mid-season acquisition Christian McCaffery (not to mention tight end touchdown poster boy George Kittle), San Francisco may have the best supporting cast in the league around Purdy. San Francisco’s defense has also been right up there with Dallas this year, and while it might be tough to trust a rookie at this stage in the playoffs, we think Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers may be too much for Dallas to handle.
There are four exciting matchups to look forward to in the Divisional Round. We think you’ll see plenty of great NFL action this weekend. We plan to keep you updated throughout the Divisional games with NFL news, matchups, scores and more. Our Twitter, Instagram and Facebook pages will have all the latest on the NFL and updates on the NBA, NHL and NCAA basketball. Look for some +EV plays added in, as well as our take on the sportsbooks’ promotions for the weekend. For more on implied probabilities, chances to win, best lines, alt lines and line movement, check out the Game Pages on SB Intel. If you’re looking for more advanced tools, we want to hear from you. Contact us at Info@SportsBettingIntel.com and learn how the sharps are using advanced data modeling and analytics to get an edge.
