Super Bowl Sunday

Available for download now on our home page is the SB Intel Super Bowl Pack! The Super Bowl Pack is filled with odds data, analysis, line movement, trends, player prop highlights, team breakdowns and more - chock full of betting data resources for betting on the Big Game. As a special bonus, download the FREE props pool and bring to your Super Bowl party! With this quick and easy props pool, you’re sure to be the hit of the party this Sunday.

We made it – on to Super Bowl Sunday. And while we couldn’t be more excited for what feels like a matchup destined to happen since week 10, we can’t help but feel this is a bittersweet Sunday. Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona promises to be an exciting matchup between two of the best teams in the league. At the same time, when the game is over, we are more than six months away from NFL football action. It’s a tough reality, but we do have the NFL Combine, NFL Draft, rookie mini-camps, OTAs and preseason football to hold us over until September! If you may remember our week 18 recap, the Chicago Bears have the number one pick in this year’s draft!

But we’ll talk about that more next month. This weekend, the Chiefs and the Eagles will clash, both franchises looking for their second title in the last four (in the case of the Chiefs) or five (in the case of the Eagles) seasons. This year marks the first time both number one seeds have faced off in the Super Bowl since Philly’s last trip to the Big Game in 2017, when they beat Tom Brady and the Patriots. Both teams ended the regular season with a 14-3 record. Both quarterbacks were in the MVP race at one point (it was Patrick Mahomes who won his second MVP award this year, though who knows what would have happened had Jalen Hurts stayed healthy all year; Hurts finished second in the MVP voting). These teams seem very evenly matched, as both boast strong, explosive offenses and above average defenses. Both teams have dynamic quarterbacks, with Jalen Hurts being the better dual-threat option. Seeing a pattern yet?

From a betting perspective, the Eagles are currently a 1.5-point favorite and the total sits at 51 even. This spread has bounced around a bit, having opened as Eagles -1.5 initially. It moved quickly down to Philly -1 and even to -0.5 (a pick ‘em) in some spots but had climbed back up to -2.5 as of the Monday before the game. It seems to have settled back at the 1.5 number it opened at. The total, on the other hand, has risen steadily (with one down blip) from its opening number. It opened at 49.5, moved to 50, went back down to 49.5 briefly and has climbed all the way up to 51 by mid-week. If you want to back Philadelphia on the moneyline, you’ll need to lay $125 to win $100. At -125, Vegas is giving the Eagles a 55.6% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy this year. The Chiefs’ moneyline sits at +105, implying a 48.8% chance to win the Big Game (remember, these chances to win add up to more than 100% because of the vig that sportsbooks charge for these bets).

Check the SB Intel Super Bowl Game Page for the latest moneylines, spreads, totals and alt lines, while also following the line movement. You can quickly find the best lines for each of the games using our Game Boards, free for everyone through Super Bowl Sunday.

As you can tell by the lines, the books are expecting a close game with a moderately high total. And the numbers back this up. KC and Philly are ranked numbers one and three in team offensive DVOA respectively, according to Football Outsiders. And both teams rank in or near the top half of team defensive DVOA (Philadelphia at six and Kansas City at 17). Thus, why we’re seeing the spread hover around the 1.5 line and the total just above 50, though we are seeing the latter tick up. The numbers tell us that both these teams can make a case for winning the title this year, and that total seems like a very good number based on the offensive and defensive matchups.

There are several storylines to watch as you’re looking to make your bets on Sunday. The health statuses of Patrick Mahomes AND Jalen Hurts are very much in question. While both made it through their respective Conference Championship games, it was clear that Mahomes’ ankle was still bothering him, as he was seen limping back to the huddle on more than one occasion. Jalen Hurts’ shoulder, while not mentioned much during the broadcast, still seemed to be bothering him, as his deep ball attempt rate was noticeably down in the NFC Conference Championship (though that may have been a product of the game script).

Another storyline to monitor is “Reid’s Revenge”. Andy Reid was the Head Coach of the Eagles for nearly a decade and a half until the organization ousted him in 2012, somewhat unexpectedly. Reid was considered one of the best coaches in the league at the time, and he’s only gone on to solidify that reputation in Kansas City, having taken this squad to a now-record five straight AFC Championship Games. Reid is looking for his second Super Bowl ring with this KC team, and against the team that unceremoniously fired him 10 years ago.

We’re not sure if this moves the betting market at all, but an interesting footnote for Super Bowl LVII is that this is the first NFL title game in which two brothers will play against each other. Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ starting tight end, and Jason Kelce, the Eagles’ center, won’t face off against each other directly, but they will be on opposite sides of the gridiron on Sunday. Both already have one Super Bowl title to their name; which brother is going to have bragging rights come Thanksgiving dinner this year?

What are the keys to the game? For the Chiefs, they need to be aware that the Eagles’ defense is one of the best in the league, featuring a stout front seven. Philly may look to bring pressure early and often, testing Mahomes’ ability to scramble when plays break down. If he’s still hobbled, Reid is going to have to figure out ways to get the ball out of Mahomes’ hand quickly, whether that’s through screen plays, dumping off to the running backs or to Kelce as a safety valve. It will be crucial for this offense to keep some drives going, as we saw what happened against the Bengals when the Chiefs stalled on third down.

For the Eagles, their primary mission will be to get to Mahomes on defense. Head Coach Nick Sirianni will look to dial up plenty of pressure with the Eagles’ front four and drop seven into coverage, which may force Mahomes to make some hasty (and possibly errant throws). On offense, the Eagles will need to rely on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for some big plays downfield. Philly would love nothing more than to run this game into the ground, but good chance the Chiefs’ offense simply won’t let them do that. Hurts is going to have to be on his game and make those huge throws to keep the pressure on Mahomes and the Chiefs.

This game is looking like a difficult one to predict. The public seems to be leaning the over, but the money is split between the two teams. Mahomes and Reid have been on the big stage before, and there is nothing like playoff experience in the NFL. At the same time, the Eagles may just be the most complete team on both sides of the ball, and Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat ability (he’s almost a lock for a touchdown if they get the ball down within the five-yard line) is unmatched in the league.

We think Mahomes’ ankle is probably still bothering him, which may limit the number of sustained drives that the Chiefs can muster. Add to that several dynamic playmakers in Brown, Smith and Dallas Goedert on the Eagles’ side of the ball, Hurts’ rushing ability and the strong Eagles’ defense, we think Philly edges this one in a close game. Some will lambast the Eagles for having an easy regular season schedule and coasting through the playoffs to the Super Bowl, but we say you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Philadelphia left little doubt en route to the Big Game. Look for the Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl LVII over the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 27-24.

We plan to keep you up to date with any breaking NFL news and line movements this Super Bowl weekend. Our Twitter, Instagram and Facebook pages will be updated the latest in the NFL, NBA, NHL and NCAA basketball. For more on implied probabilities, chances to win, best lines, alt lines and line movement, check out the Super Bowl Game Page on SB Intel. Find tools and resources for wagering on the NFL, as well as on NBA, NCAA basketball, NHL, MLS and international soccer on our website. If you’re looking for more advanced tools, we want to hear from you. Contact us at Info@SportsBettingIntel.com and learn how the sharps are using advanced data modeling and analytics to get an edge.