NCAAF National Championship Game 2023 Preview

Here we are. 15 weeks of the regular season, 41 bowl games and we're down to two team playing for a chance to be crowned the 2022-2023 NCAAF National Champions. If you had told us that TCU was going to be one of these teams back in August, we would have asked if you lost a dare. Georgia, we can certainly understand. Ranked number one for most of the season and the reigning National Champs, Georgia was always on a path to the CFB playoffs, if not the National Championship Game. TCU, on the other hand, has shocked the college football world and shown that it's not just teams from the “tough” conferences that can make the CFB playoffs. TCU was un-ranked coming into the 2022 season, and, despite some stumbles along the way, have proven all the doubters wrong.

While Georgia needed nearly every second and a fourth quarter comeback to beat Ohio State in their semi-final game, TCU was virtually in control of their semi-final matchup against Michigan from the get-go. No one expected TCU to get this far – most had them finishing in the bottom half of the Big 12 this season. First year coach Sonny Dykes had other plans, however, and guided the Horned Frogs to an undefeated regular season record, led in no small part by Heisman finalist Max Duggan. TCU was humbled after losing to Kansas State (another surprise finisher in the Big 12 this year) in the Big 12 Championship Game. The team rallied, however, and put away back-to-back Big 10 champs Michigan in the semi-finals.

TCU's biggest test looms on Monday night, as Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite heading into the game. In fact, the moneyline on Georgia is -435 (lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook), meaning you would need to lay $435 on Georgia to win just to win $100. TCU is +350 on the moneyline, so you could wager $100 to win $350 if you think TCU can upset Georgia. The over/under is a whopping 63, which seems high in a game featuring one of the nation's best defenses in Georgia. TCU does have one of the most explosive offenses in college football, scoring an average of 39.7 points per game, and having just put up 51 on Michigan, another stellar defense this year. The big question is can TCU's offense overcome Georgia's outstanding defense, which gave up only 15.9 points per game to opponents this season. Georgia's offense is no slouch on their own, as the former walk-on and junior college transfer Stetson Bennet has helped the Georgia offense to a strong 39.8 points per game and the SEC title this season, in addition to leading the Bulldogs to Georgia's first national title since 1980 last year.

The question everyone now is asking - what does TCU have to do to become the first Big 12 team to win the College Football Playoffs, the first Big 12 team to win a national title since Texas in 2005 AND take home TCU's first NCAA football title since 1938? For starters, their offense must show up against this strong Georgia defense. If TCU can keep the offensive momentum rolling from the 51 they put up on Michigan, they have a real shot. Keep in mind that Georgia just gave up 41 points to Ohio State in their semi-final matchup, an aberration for Kirby Smart's squad. TCU's defense, on the other hand, must make some big plays and get some stops. Generating a couple turnovers, like they did against Michigan, will certainly help.

Georgia is going to come into this game with TCU's offense front of mind, as you know they took those 41 points from Ohio State personally. Georgia's defense is still one of the nation's best, and the offense has been quietly humming all season long. It would be a shock to see TCU upset Georgia and keep them from their second National Championship in a row. This is likely the best offense that Georgia will have faced all season, but TCU will have to play a near-perfect game on both sides of the ball to do so, and that is a tall ask. This game has the makings of an all-time classic, a thriller that will go down in the books as one of the best National Championship games in history. Still, Georgia seems like too complete a team to be shaken at this level. Give me Georgia in a squeaker, 41-38.