NCAA Football Conference Championship and Playoff

Good day, sports fans! Today we are going to look at where things sit for the Conference Championships and how the top teams factor into the College Football Playoffs. We had a crazy weekend that shook things up quite a bit and, honestly, I think gave us some clearer answers (or at least paths for some teams).

Let’s get started with the SEC, which, barring some strange things down the stretch, should only have one team in the College Football Playoff this season. After Georgia’s clear and decisive win over Tennessee, they are atop the SEC East and will (likely) stay there. The SEC West seems to be safely in the hands of LSU after the big win over Alabama. While Ole Miss has one loss currently, that loss was to LSU. We will need to see if LSU can keep it rolling following the tide W, and beat Arkansas, who had a surprising loss last week against Liberty. While I wouldn’t call it a lock, Georgia vs. LSU looks to be the most likely matchup in the SEC Championship.

Moving to the Big Ten, the East will be settled by the Ohio State vs. Michigan game being played on 11.26.22 in the Horseshoe. The winner of that game will take the top spot in the East and play the West which, well, won’t be much competition. Illinois is sitting at the top currently with a 4-2 record in conference play, but still will be playing Purdue, followed by Michigan, so they could very well end up with two more losses. After Illinois, there is a four-way tie at 3-3 between Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa and Minnesota. I could go through all the scenarios of how each team could get to the Championship Game, but I’ll save us all some time; Ohio State/Michigan defeat (insert West team) in the Big Ten Championship.

Shifting south we have the Big 12 and the undefeated TCU Horned Frogs sitting on top. They do play Texas this weekend and are right around a seven-point dog. Also in the mix are Baylor and Kansas State at 4-2 in the Conference, along with Texas. Baylor has the toughest remaining schedule and Kansas State the easiest on paper. My prediction for the championship game is TCU vs Kansas State, although, unless TCU remains undefeated, this game will not likely have much impact on the College Football Playoffs.

Looking west to the Conference of Champions, the Pac 12, there are four teams in good position to play for the Championship. Oregon with a 6-0 conference record followed by USC, UCLA and Utah all with one conference loss. On 11.19.22, the teams playing for the championship game will likely be decided, as USC and UCLA play, and Utah and Oregon meet, as well. Let’s assume each team wins out other than the obvious loss two of these teams will be taking in these games. The easiest scenario is Oregon wins then plays the winner of USC vs UCLA. If Oregon loses it gets a bit complicated. Oregon would be in even with a loss to Utah. Going with a Utah win and a USC win, then it would be Oregon vs. USC based on the tiebreaker of Utah losing to UCLA, and the Ducks and Trojans both beating UCLA. However, if UCLA wins it gets pretty messy. If I am reading the tiebreaker rules correctly, then the championship game would be a rematch of Oregon vs. Utah. This would be settled by step four in the procedure, which is conference strength of schedule. Now that we know all the possibilities, what is going to be the outcome? I say Ducks continue winning and take on UCLA, who bests USC in an exciting high scoring affair.

Now that we have covered the complex west, let’s go east to the ACC, where I don’t think it could be much simpler. Clemson will play in the championship game from the Atlantic side and North Carolina will represent the Coastal. In theory, both teams could even lose two games down the stretch and still play in the ACC Championship.

With the Power 5 championships worked out, let’s take a look at how all of this impacts the CFB Playoff, and if any other teams have a chance to make it in the top four. The SEC obviously gets one team in; easiest path is Georgia wins out and there’s your team. Even with a Georgia loss to LSU, I think they are the only SEC team in. The Big Ten gets at least one team in; the winner of the 11.26.22 Ohio State vs. Michigan game is in. If it is a great game down to the wire, I could see both getting in with some help from other teams. The key being a good competitive game (this is why I skipped past Tennessee; they just did not look good at all versus Georgia). TCU gets in if they stay undefeated. Do I think they are a great team? Not really, but if they are undefeated, they earned their spot. Any loss down the stretch or in the Big 12 Championship moves them out of the playoffs, which I do think will happen. The Pac 12 I think has two teams that could get in, if the championship is between a one loss Oregon and USC, the winner should be in. I know what you’re thinking: “you just said Tennessee doesn’t have a chance because of a bad loss to Georgia and didn’t the Ducks get blown out by Georgia week one??” Correct, week one being the key part – new coach, new QB in game one of the season and Bo Nix’s inability to play against Georgia (joking on that one, sort of…) I think the Ducks are a whole new team at this point of the season. The ACC, on the other hand, is out of luck even though the two tops teams’ only losses are against Notre Dame. The ACC is not a strong conference or as strong as the others. So, without an undefeated champion I think they will miss out. My playoff prediction is #1 Georgia, #2 Michigan, #3 Oregon and #4 Ohio State.

Lots of exciting games ahead, let’s see how it all plays out! You don't have to bet, but when you do, bet with Intel.